Small Time Blog
Either investors are naive, convinced it can't happen, or they are in the know about a diplomatic solution to The North Korean issue. I wish it were the diplomatic route but there is no way I can know that. I can only hope cooler heads will prevail and if they do, I believe equity markets could add another double digit percent increase in 2018. The alternative is mind numbing. A war in the far east is likely to disrupt the world economy in a very negative way. I could see a 15% plunge on the day of any military action on our part, only stopping there because the circuit breakers would kick in and trading would be halted. Never before in my investing life have I been so exposed to a downfall with all of my investable capital. It would take me 2 hours to sell 75% of all my stock holdings and go to cash and I am prepared to do it. Being the eternal optimist, I think we will see a coup attempt or pressure from Russia and China to diffuse the situation. I hope no one is prepared to use nukes to start a war. We have to trust in the leadership of our nation at this time because the decisions are all in their hands. The current administration is pro business and pro growth and I know they are aware of what a large scale military conflict would do to undermine their economic agenda. Our generals have stated that a war on the Korean peninsula would be catastrophic. Millions of casualties would result quickly and millions more would be displaced with just conventional weaponry warfare. Let's pray for peace and prosperity for the Asian world!
One of our longest holdings is starting to turn the corner. RVLT, an LED lighting solutions company. We have 125 shares in the Smalltime Model Portfolio and another 500 shares in my wife's IRA. Our average in price is $7.00. Could this one produce a multibagger? I believe the stock will go into the thirties over the next 4-5 years if the current plan stays on course. I am looking to add to this position soon before it breaks north of $9.00. This has not been an easy company to own, as it seems all good news is met with selling. In the immortal words of Michael Burry, of The Big Short movie fame, I might be early to this trade but I am not wrong! RVLT closed Friday August 5th at $7.32. Next stop $10....all aboard!
The Smalltime Model Portfolio is about to be rebranded to Scrapfund.com! I am in the process of making Small Time Recycling into a business and opening up the Scrapfund.com website exclusively to track the former Smalltime Model Portfolio, which will be changed in name only, the holdings will remain the same for the foreseeable future. Scrapfund.com better reflects the the activity of turning scrap metal into cash and using the cash to buy stocks in clean tech industries. It is my hope that Scrapfund.com will attract other people who are interested in using otherwise dead money in the form of un-recycled metals to fund a long term stock portfolio focused on the future of clean technology and smart grid integration.
In October of 2014 I wrote a piece called Evolution of an Investor, Lessons from the First Three Years. Those first three years were trying to say the least! Wading through all the lies and myths and trying to gain the necessary knowledge to get a foot in the door and actually make money from owning stocks. Trade is in the name of nearly every online broker leaving the unwitting to think trading is the only way to make any profits. Options or mathematical mysticism, whatever you wish to call them, are way over the heads of almost everyone, me included and I sort of understand them! Mutual Funds, the only way for the "common man" to diversify and manage risk, I found to be over-diversified dividend eating monsters relentlessly mashing up the dividends of their holdings and spitting out a small sliver for you, the mutual turtle shareholder.