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2008-2009 Manufacturing Lull was 2nd Worst on Record

by Bradley Voight on 02/26/14

From September 2008 to June 2009 American factories shifted into neutral in a slowdown not seen since 1982. The Institute for Supply Management's PMI number is a measure of industrial output from American manufacturers dating back to January of 1948. The 10 month slowdown in production during the financial crisis and subsequent stock market free fall was the 2nd worst on record and the evidence was on the highway at night where freight was not moving and rest areas were ghost towns. My night job is in transportation and I was a firsthand witness to a utter disappearance of tractor trailers from I-70 and I-65 in Indiana border to border north and south, two of the busiest freight corridors in the nation. In 2005 and 2006 there were so many trucks on the road that they were lining all rest stops and exit ramps. Well it looks like those days are back. All rest stops are packed and spilling out on to the shoulder of the highway every night including weekends and the exit ramps are starting to fill up again.


I think that the production downturn, a technology shift happening in so many industries, historically low interest rates, and hoards of cash in the banking sector (and on corporate balance sheets) is setting us up for a boom time. Each day in China and India a family moves further from poverty towards a higher standard of living (I won't call it middle class just yet). I know the apocalypse is supposed to be coming and WWIII is shaping up but I have faith in humanity and if we can keep our tempers down we can lift an entire generation out of poverty and sickness.

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