Small Time Blog

Small Time Blog

Just Like Mike, I've Failed Again and Again, and that is Why I Succeed!

by Bradley Voight on 05/17/19

Investing in public capital markets is like being inside one of those globes where the money is flying all around you and all you have to do is catch it.....easier said than done.  Six years into managing all of my family's money with no financial advisor and at times feeling like a sky diver with no parachute, the failures have been few in terms of losses. Errors of omission have been the largest errors, having all the right information and being shaken out of good stocks such as AAXN and TWTR, bought both at 15 bucks and sold for small gain. Today AAXN is 63 and TWTR is 39. Coulda shoulda woulda held them but got bounced out. As of May 17th of 2019, I have more than doubled my IRA in 3 years from $24,500 to over $54,100. In 2017 I returned 45% for the year and in 2018 I was up only 3%. So far this year I am up 31%. Even with those great numbers I still made some critical errors or I would be over $65,000 right now. Live, invest, and learn!

Boom Time in Full Effect Pt. 2

by Bradley Voight on 01/31/19

Technology is changing the way we work, play, sleep, shop, exercise, drive, and on and on. The rapid advancement across every industry sector is happening at a pace never before witnessed. Cryptocurrencies, which seem like science fiction, will be adopted just like the internet was seamlessly into our lives over several years. There was a .com crash and now look at e commerce. There has been a crypto crash......wait ten years and see where cryptos are. Now is the time to load up on the top names such as Litecoin, IOTA, Ethereum, Bitcoin and XRP. When I say load up, I mean no more than 3-5% of your investable assets. 


The trade dispute between China and the US is roiling markets but a resolution will come and it will benefit both parties. China will become increasingly wealthy over the next several years but I give fair warning now, if India is not able to grab the torch for the next leg of global growth, then the day China posts a negative GDP number it will be like Armageddon to financial markets. I personally see that day coming in the mid to late 2020's. As far as I can see economically the US will still be the tallest hog in the trough, with China rapidly approaching in the rear view. The current expansion will continue in the US as the tax package brings businesses to America and the boost provided by the standard deduction doubling takes effect. The Federal Reserve Bank will continue to let the bonds they bought during quantitative easing to mature to the tune of $50 billion per month for a couple of trillion or so total when it is all said and done. That type of liquidity drain will always be in the back of the markets mind and will periodically be blamed for sell offs for the next couple of years. The catalyst for this economic run since '09 has and continues to be the roll over of boomer assets to gen x'ers and millennials. 60 trillion + going into the hands of spenders, not savers!

Boom Time in Full Effect Pt. 1

by Bradley Voight on 08/29/18

I have gone on record on here several times over the past seven years saying that all the cards were lined up to produce an economic boom time. Nine years after the financial crisis and great recession we have been in an expansion that could become the longest in American history. Unemployment is sub 4%, with hiring signs in every window, employers still can't find enough workers. 


ALL TOGETHER NOW.....INTEREST RATES ARE LOW DUE TO THE AGING DEMOGRAPHIC IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD, NOT BECAUSE OF THE FED!!!!!! The bond market wags the Fed, not the other way around. Bond rates are determined by supply and demand dynamics in a price discovery mechanism known as the US Treasury note auction. If more buyers show up to the auction, bond prices go up and inversely yields go down.....easy to figure out! Bond prices have been in a bull market since 1982 and amazingly 1982 was the year that the first of the Baby Boomers (Born 1946 to 1964) began to reach middle age. Fast forward to 2018 and you have 76 million people in 70% bonds, 30% stocks, thus the low rate environment. This is why I also said stocks were on a long march higher as the bond bubble deflates (slowly I might add) and the rotation of boomer retirement money ($59 TRILLION) gets left down to Generation X, who will spend a great deal of the money and invest the rest in stock heavy portfolios. The spending will drive corporate profits and the 70% stock portfolios will pinch the supply of shares floating. Stay tuned for part 2 coming soon in which I will explain how technology is driving the long expansion and will drive it longer than you could imagine. By the way, $59 trillion divided by 76 million people = $776,315 which is the average amount being left by dying baby boomers.

Dave Ramsey Says Play it Safe, Because You Can't Do it Yourself.

by Bradley Voight on 03/29/18

I'll start by saying I love Dave Ramsey. He is truly someone who I admire and I do try to follow his advice about becoming debt free. I do not disagree with anything he says, but one thing he preaches is not to invest for yourself. I think this is great advice for most people, but by saying that no one can invest DIY, Dave is selling people short. He says that there are numerous studies (which I've not seen) that conclude individual investors buy high and sell low. I am not saying that people should drop all mutual funds, but I am saying that people should take a small percentage of their money and try to find opportunities to make a greater return than can be achieved through passive investing. Here are some examples from my own life where a little research went a long way and I did not risk the farm to do it.

View/Change cost basis method

 
Stocks, options, and ETFs
AAALCOA CORP
78.0000 $2,412.15$3,492.86$1,080.71$1,080.71
NVDANVIDIA CORP
25.5150 $866.65$5,801.36$2.96$4,931.75$4,934.71
SIRISIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC
200.0000 $789.75$1,263.17$473.42$473.42
Total$4,068.55$10,557.39$2.96$6,485.88$6,488.84
 I took a small amount and made it a little bigger by paying attention!

Global Middle Class Will Drive Dow to 32,000 by 2030

by Bradley Voight on 03/29/18

According to the Brookings Institute the global middle class could surge by 68%  from 3.2 billion people today to 5.2 billion people by 2028. The global middle class is defined by people with the ability to spend $10-$20 per day. As an amatuer market observer and economist, this is no surprise to me, but it will be to almost everyone else in America. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is made up of 30 large multinational companies that are going to benefit greatly over the next decade. That is why I am making the call for 32,000 on the Dow by 2030. Some of the risk factors between now and then are visible now, such as the Syrian conflict, high sovereign and corporate debt levels, North Korea, a Chinese hard landing after years of growth, or India and Pakistan boiling over


These are the known risk factors but who knows what other calamities await us as we storm toward 9 billion folks hanging around this joint. Stay tuned!

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice as I am neither licensed nor qualified to advise anyone's financial decisions. It is a site presenting an "out of the box" set of ideas on how to possibly maximize profit from recycling, creating an incentive for people to recycle. Smalltimerecycling.com and I Brad Voight are not responsible for any losses incurred from tips or suggestions presented on Smalltimrecycling.com, they are simply my own opinions and I encourage you to form your own opinions.
Also, the Smalltime Blog is not intended to be journalism. It is my own personal commentary on market factors, conditions, and events and other commentary relative to the content on Smalltimerecycling.com and is by no means meant to convey news or provide coverage of any news event.
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Our primary mission is to reclaim valuable recyclables from the waste stream and bring attention to the wastefulness of America. Currently we are recycling metals and e-waste. The Smalltime Blog is a non political commentary on metal, stock, currency and other markets. The Smalltime Blog is also where the hard lessons of a self taught investor are discussed.
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