Small Time Blog

Small Time Blog

Boom Time in Full Effect Pt. 1

by Bradley Voight on 08/29/18

I have gone on record on here several times over the past seven years saying that all the cards were lined up to produce an economic boom time. Nine years after the financial crisis and great recession we have been in an expansion that could become the longest in American history. Unemployment is sub 4%, with hiring signs in every window, employers still can't find enough workers. 


ALL TOGETHER NOW.....INTEREST RATES ARE LOW DUE TO THE AGING DEMOGRAPHIC IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD, NOT BECAUSE OF THE FED!!!!!! The bond market wags the Fed, not the other way around. Bond rates are determined by supply and demand dynamics in a price discovery mechanism known as the US Treasury note auction. If more buyers show up to the auction, bond prices go up and inversely yields go down.....easy to figure out! Bond prices have been in a bull market since 1982 and amazingly 1982 was the year that the first of the Baby Boomers (Born 1946 to 1964) began to reach middle age. Fast forward to 2018 and you have 76 million people in 70% bonds, 30% stocks, thus the low rate environment. This is why I also said stocks were on a long march higher as the bond bubble deflates (slowly I might add) and the rotation of boomer retirement money ($59 TRILLION) gets left down to Generation X, who will spend a great deal of the money and invest the rest in stock heavy portfolios. The spending will drive corporate profits and the 70% stock portfolios will pinch the supply of shares floating. Stay tuned for part 2 coming soon in which I will explain how technology is driving the long expansion and will drive it longer than you could imagine. By the way, $59 trillion divided by 76 million people = $776,315 which is the average amount being left by dying baby boomers.

Dave Ramsey Says Play it Safe, Because You Can't Do it Yourself.

by Bradley Voight on 03/29/18

I'll start by saying I love Dave Ramsey. He is truly someone who I admire and I do try to follow his advice about becoming debt free. I do not disagree with anything he says, but one thing he preaches is not to invest for yourself. I think this is great advice for most people, but by saying that no one can invest DIY, Dave is selling people short. He says that there are numerous studies (which I've not seen) that conclude individual investors buy high and sell low. I am not saying that people should drop all mutual funds, but I am saying that people should take a small percentage of their money and try to find opportunities to make a greater return than can be achieved through passive investing. Here are some examples from my own life where a little research went a long way and I did not risk the farm to do it.

View/Change cost basis method

 
Stocks, options, and ETFs
AAALCOA CORP
78.0000 $2,412.15$3,492.86$1,080.71$1,080.71
NVDANVIDIA CORP
25.5150 $866.65$5,801.36$2.96$4,931.75$4,934.71
SIRISIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC
200.0000 $789.75$1,263.17$473.42$473.42
Total$4,068.55$10,557.39$2.96$6,485.88$6,488.84
 I took a small amount and made it a little bigger by paying attention!

Global Middle Class Will Drive Dow to 32,000 by 2030

by Bradley Voight on 03/29/18

According to the Brookings Institute the global middle class could surge by 68%  from 3.2 billion people today to 5.2 billion people by 2028. The global middle class is defined by people with the ability to spend $10-$20 per day. As an amatuer market observer and economist, this is no surprise to me, but it will be to almost everyone else in America. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is made up of 30 large multinational companies that are going to benefit greatly over the next decade. That is why I am making the call for 32,000 on the Dow by 2030. Some of the risk factors between now and then are visible now, such as the Syrian conflict, high sovereign and corporate debt levels, North Korea, a Chinese hard landing after years of growth, or India and Pakistan boiling over


These are the known risk factors but who knows what other calamities await us as we storm toward 9 billion folks hanging around this joint. Stay tuned!

My First 650% Gain!

by Bradley Voight on 11/10/17

I bought 50 shares of NVDA @ $33 per share in December of 2015 in my IRA account. I sold 25 of them @ $66 thinking hey, I doubled my money.......a mistake and a blatant disregard for the rules of owning a fast grower! Well the stock kept going and is now trading at over $215! The companys' market cap is $130 billion, roughly half the size of Intel Corporation (INTC) @ $213 billion. I expect Nvidia to equal Intel's size within a couple of years. 


I discovered Nvidia when it was 10 dollars a share and I waited till it tripled before buying! So how much is my $825 purchase worth today? 25.8 shares (.8 shares were bought with reinvested dividends) times $216.50 which is friday's (11/10/17) closing price equals $5,585.70 for a profit of $4760.70......plus the $825 that I doubled by selling @ $66 means that I made an additional $825 and took out my original $825. This means my 25 shares were free!!! Nvidia was on my watchlist for years and my watchlist is typically over 40 companies! When you keep a watch list and study it, opportunities WILL present themselves, it is all about paying attention.

Equity Markets Continue to Flourish in the Face of Nuclear War

by Bradley Voight on 09/24/17

Either investors are naive, convinced it can't happen, or they are in the know about a diplomatic solution to The North Korean issue. I wish it were the diplomatic route but there is no way I can know that. I can only hope cooler heads will prevail and if they do, I believe equity markets could add another double digit percent increase in 2018. The alternative is mind numbing. A war in the far east is likely to disrupt the world economy in a very negative way. I could see a 15% plunge on the day of any military action on our part, only stopping there because the circuit breakers would kick in and trading would be halted. Never before in my investing life have I been so exposed to a downfall with all of my investable capital. It would take me 2 hours to sell 75% of all my stock holdings and go to cash and I am prepared to do it. Being the eternal optimist, I think we will see a coup attempt or pressure from Russia and China to diffuse the situation. I hope no one is prepared to use nukes to start a war. We have to trust in the leadership of our nation at this time because the decisions are all in their hands. The current administration is pro business and pro growth and I know they are aware of what a large scale military conflict would do to undermine their economic agenda. Our generals have stated that a war on the Korean peninsula would be catastrophic. Millions of casualties would result quickly and millions more would be displaced with just conventional weaponry warfare. Let's pray for peace and prosperity for the Asian world!

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice as I am neither licensed nor qualified to advise anyone's financial decisions. It is a site presenting an "out of the box" set of ideas on how to possibly maximize profit from recycling, creating an incentive for people to recycle. Smalltimerecycling.com and I Brad Voight are not responsible for any losses incurred from tips or suggestions presented on Smalltimrecycling.com, they are simply my own opinions and I encourage you to form your own opinions.
Also, the Smalltime Blog is not intended to be journalism. It is my own personal commentary on market factors, conditions, and events and other commentary relative to the content on Smalltimerecycling.com and is by no means meant to convey news or provide coverage of any news event.
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