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Smalltime's Macroeconomic Outlook Remains the Same

by Bradley Voight on 11/22/16

The world economic picture is still one of expansion and not contraction. The presidential election, with all it's fireworks, does not change anything about the business cycle. That is why I am sticking with my macro forecast of continued economic growth world wide. Everyone is trying to prepare for the crisis that just happened and that clouds their vision of what is actually happening on the ground. In the 92 months since the market bottom on March 9th of 2009, there are 14 million more people working. Those 14 million people are spending money and even getting raises. Weekly applications for unemployment are at a 43 year low, according to the bureau of labor statistics. 


Donald Trump holds the missing piece of the puzzle to put America, and the world, into a growth spurt....it's the infrastructure, stupid! The American Society of Civil Engineers spells it out in plain English here. If Trump can spend half of the $3.6 trillion that is recommended in the engineers report card, we are in for 4 to 5 % GDP growth! Plus there is 55 trillion dollars in private wealth being left from the Baby Boomers to the Millennials and gen X'ers. I'm betting on America through at least 2022 and I encourage everyone to join me! Just remember that there are no sure things but there are high degrees of probability!

S&P 500 Approaching Smalltime's Call of 2220, Dow 7% Away from 20,000

by Bradley Voight on 08/23/16

The major indexes are marching toward the levels we anticipated way back in 2014. Why and how did I make such a prediction? First I considered that the sell off in '08-'09 took the markets to extreme lows and left companies sorely undervalued. Second, I looked at the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index and saw that '08-'09 produced the longest factory slowdown since the end of WWII and the third longest factory downturn in 75 years. I also considered interest rates on the 10 year treasury note reaching historic lows around 1.5%. The rates are low because the population of America, and the developed world, is aged and all managed portfolios are heavy in fixed income. The fact is older people invest in bonds to preserve the capital that they have accumulated over their lifetimes. The baby boomer generation is set to pass on that accumulated wealth to the tune of 59 trillion dollars over the next 20 years with that money flowing to a generation who is younger and more risk averse than the boomers. This to me means that stocks could go to levels that would seem absurd today, like the S&P 500 at 4500 by the year 2020, which I think will happen. These and other factors I mentioned in earlier posts are what has driven the market to these levels and what will continue to drive markets for the next several years. Wal-Mart and Target are among several large companies that have given raises across the board to lower wage workers. Those raises will not be saved, but will be spent driving corporate profits higher and expanding P/E multiples in the marketplace.

It Takes Time to Produce Results in Investing

by Bradley Voight on 06/18/16

You may look at the Smalltime Model Portfolio and say, "hey, you lost over $1000, what a dumb ass!" Yes I feel like a dumb ass when I look at the balance in the account, but when I look at it from a longer term perspective, things change. Revolution Lighting (RVLT) grossed $26 million in 2013, $76 million in 2014, and $129 Million in 2015. The company is projecting 2016 revenue in the range of $180-$190 million. Mean while the stock price has gone nowhere but down, with me buying more on every new good news event from the company. You see growth costs money and when those investments finally begin to pay off, the earnings per share will rise, which in turn drives the stock price. If I am wrong then I just picked up a bunch of trash for no financial gain, but I still helped in a small way. If I am right, I'll make money off of something everyone views as worthless.

Interest Rates Are Low Due to Demographics in the Developed World, Not the Fed

by Bradley Voight on 06/15/16

Interest on the German 10 year bund went below zero for the first time ever this week as the US ten year bond is nearing 1.5% again, a level not seen since August of 2012. It is actually very simple to figure out, the developed world is aging and the emerging economies represent the youth needed to spur growth. India has surpassed China in annual growth rate pushing above 7% and lets not forget that India is the worlds largest democracy! India is also trying to build out it's infrastructure growth with renewable energy sources rather than dirty old coal. 


The US population is 300 million. India and China together growing at even 5% is 5% on 2 billion people, or roughly 28 percent of the world. America is 4 % of the world. US multinationals make 80% of their revenue overseas so I am sticking by my bullish call, which is that the world economy is likely to keep expanding through 2020 with very few hiccups. Cross your fingers and hold on, Dow 20,000 just around the bend!

2016 Market Melt Off, Hooray!

by Bradley Voight on 01/27/16

The new year has brought on massive profit taking in the broader market! After climbing the 8 year wall of Obama worry, large institutions are cashing in for the next phase of the economic expansion or China is having an asteroid sized hard landing and we are all doomed! I have stated on here before that I am an optimist, even though I could get burned for my tendency to look for the good, so I am sticking by my view that this is an economic expansion that is not over in the US or China or India for that matter. I am staying with and even expanding positions in the Smalltime Model Portfolio. I have branched out to my first international fund in my IRA. 


Pessimism is rampant in the marketplace and the Fed is sticking by the December decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (rising rates usually mean economy is good). How could the central bank be so wrong and Wall Street so right? The commodity pitfall seems to have leveled off with oil regaining the $30 handle and Copper stabilizing above $2. Long term rates are falling with the 10 year US treasury cliff hanging at 2% (a function of the demographic trend of aging baby boomers)

I'm staying with my notion that the economy in the US continues to expand. Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld stated in the companies' recent quarterly earnings call that 2016 would bring record aluminum demand. How is that when everyone keeps saying the sky is falling? Over 17 million vehicles were sold in the US last year, a new record. Who bought them? Who in the hell are all the people stuck in rush hour? I always say that the glass is half full for me and it is going to stay that way until some knocks it from my hand and spills it.


Disclaimer: This is not investment advice as I am neither licensed nor qualified to advise anyone's financial decisions. It is a site presenting an "out of the box" set of ideas on how to possibly maximize profit from recycling, creating an incentive for people to recycle. Smalltimerecycling.com and I Brad Voight are not responsible for any losses incurred from tips or suggestions presented on Smalltimrecycling.com, they are simply my own opinions and I encourage you to form your own opinions.
Also, the Smalltime Blog is not intended to be journalism. It is my own personal commentary on market factors, conditions, and events and other commentary relative to the content on Smalltimerecycling.com and is by no means meant to convey news or provide coverage of any news event.
Smalltime Public Company & Stock Fund Watch List (click each link to learn more)

RVLT

SGLB

MJNA


PLUG

MYEC

TAN

FAN

CPST

PBW

KR

SIRI

AMRS

HASI

RDNT



















Smalltimerecycling.com Mission Statement

Our primary mission is to reclaim valuable recyclables from the waste stream and bring attention to the wastefulness of America. Currently we are recycling metals and e-waste. We will show you that what looks like worthless trash can actually be invest-able capital. Our secondary mission, the Smalltime Model Portfolio, is a long term clean energy based portfolio that was born entirely from the trash. The portfolio is actively managed by me using all of the free information available online. The Smalltime Blog follows the SMP and is also a non political commentary on metal, stock, currency and other markets. The Smalltime Blog is also where the hard lessons of a self taught investor are discussed.
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