Smalltime's 2015 Economic Outlook

Smalltime thinks that the rate will be moved in .25 point increments with the first one coming in the mid-summer. This will be after two more quarters of 5% annualized GDP growth following the third quarter of fiscal 2014. Here is the one reason I think this is going to happen: Freight Flow. I-65 and I-70 are loaded with trucks but three types of trucks in particular tell the economic story. 1. Flatbeds with new heavy machinery and other specialty freight.

2. Plain white, brand new 48' and 53' trailers, denoting independent truckers reentering the market

3. Leased trailers. There are an increasing number of leased trailers on the road. a local leasing company, Premier Trailer Leasing had a 50 acre lot full of trailers last spring and it looks like a ghost town now. 

President Obama, like him or not, has presided over the longest continuous stretch of private sector job growth in US history. I am a political atheist to quote Gerald Celente, a well known trends researcher, I think both parties work for each other so I credit the economy not to a party or a leader but to the business cycle. "Every thing good needs replacin" as Dave Mathews says, but I say everything old needs replacing and that means cars, IT, infrastructure, fire trucks, municipal water works across the nation, and the list goes on. It all needs replaced and if the threat of interest rate hikes are real, then you will see investment tick up to beat rising rates. 

Currency fluctuations and the drop in oil prices have caused turmoil in equity markets. Until we hear from corporate America this quarter as to how these developments have either helped or hindered profits and profit growth, we won't know but I suspect we will hear that low oil prices help most companies. Continued liquidity from foreign central banks will keep equity markets rolling in 2015 and the S&P 500 will end the year at or near 2275 after rough sailing, but it is the Russell 2000 that will hit all time highs throughout the year closing near 1450. Gold and silver will crack and break below $1000 and $13 respectively.

There must be a word or two on black swan events. Smash Mouth says "My worlds on fire, how about yours? That's the way I like it and I'll never get bored" and I agree. Ecclesiastes 7:10 says, Do not say "Why has it happened that the former days proved better than these?" for it is not due to wisdom that you asked about this. I tend to agree, there are no 'good ole days', the here and now are the best days we have. In the coming year there will be wars and terror events and atrocities untold but until an asteroid hits our fine Mother Earth, I am going to continue to look for the good in humanity and strive to be the best person I can be in the new year and beyond and I hope you will do the same.